FADLI L. HAKIM (2012) PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOMATIC CLUSTERING DAN HIGH ORDER FUZZY TIME SERIES. Skripsi thesis, UNIVERSITAS ISLAM NEGERI SULTAN SYARIEF KASIM RIAU.

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Abstract

There was no rainfall prediction on BMKG (meteorological climatology and geophysical) in Padangwill be negative effect to farmer harvesting. It caused BMKG could not giverecomendation to agriculture servicedirectly related with farmers in this area. For this reason, they need a system of BMKG to predict the rainfall. The report uses Automatic Clustering method to get its interval, and using one of the models of the FTS method is High Order Fuzzy Time Series for forecasting results. The results of this study is the prediction of the rainfall for the months later. MAPE and MPE calculation used to get the error rate forecasting, and the graphic as comparison of the actual data andforecasting results. Based on research, the reslts got by 4.317% MAPE and MPE at -2.849%. it can be conclded that the method Automatic Clustering and High Order Fuzzy Time Series can be used for forecasting because it produces a small error rate.

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