OKTI WARDANI, - (2023) ANALISIS PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU ROTI DONAT RICHARD BAKERY MENGGUNAKAN METODE INVENTORI PROBABILISTIK DENGAN KEBIJAKAN BACK ORDER DAN LOST SALES. https://ejurnal.umri.ac.id/index.php/JST/article/view/5021, 10 (1). pp. 601-609. ISSN ISSN: 2354-6751 (Cetak) & ISSN: 2723-7222 (Online)

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Abstract

UMKM Richard Bakery is an UMKM that produces bread, original donuts, sugar donuts, banana donuts, meses donuts, godok donuts and jumbo donuts. UMKM Richard Bakery has a weakness in the supply of raw materials. Among them there was a delay in meeting the demand for raw materials caused by the uncertainty of market demand for the product. So that in providing raw material stocks it becomes hampered in carrying out distribution and experiencing difficulties in meeting uncertain market demand for donut bread products. Probabilistic Inventory Method with Backorder Policy and Lost sales is used to optimize service levels and minimize inventory costs. In forecasting flour usage, the Moving Average method with a period of n = 10 was chosen as the best method with a MAPE value of 10.657%. The forecasting results show a total demand for flour of 2,919.41 Kg in 2022. Meanwhile, in forecasting egg use, the Moving Average method with a period of n = 8 was chosen as the best method with a MAPE value of 10.2%. Forecasting results show a total demand for eggs of 13,693.41 eggs in 2022. After forecasting, raw material costs are calculated using the probabilistic inventory method according to the company's situation. The results of the analysis show that the P back order system inventory model provides the most optimum inventory costs, namely Rp. 43,930,885 for flour with a service level of 99.96%, and Rp. 28,289,892 for eggs with a service level of 85.57%. Keywords: Inventory, Probabilistic, Forecasting, Backorder, Lost sales

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