Akbarizan, - and Muhammad Marizal and Rado Yendra, - and Kusaeri, - and Ari Pani Desvina, - and Kamarulzaman Ibrahim, - and Ahmad Fudholi, - Annual Maximum Exchange Rate in Southeast Asia Based on Methods of L-moment and Maximum Likelihood.

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Abstract

The main objective of this study is to determine the best fitting distribution to describe the annual series of maximum daily exchange rate from 1993 to 2013 for 4 countries in Southeast Asia based on L-moment and Maximum Likelihood (ML). Four three-parameter extreme-value distributions which are considered are Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic Distribution (GLD), Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and Pearson III (P3). The estimation of parameters of these distributions is determined using the L-moment and maximum likelihood. The adequacy of the distributions based on parameter estimates computed using the two methods are evaluated using goodness-of-fit tests. When the goodness-of-fit results for these distributions are compared, it is found that, on the average, the performance of L-moment is better than the performance of maximum likelihood. Although the best fitting distribution may very according to the method of estimation and country considered, in most cases, data for the majority of the several countries are found to follow the generalized logistic distribution. Keywords: Annual maximum series, exchange rate, extreme exchange rate analysis, L-moment, maximum likelihood

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